Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.298352 2.431922 2.577099 2.748199 2.946520 3.172044 3.452345
2025-08-31 2.150367 2.315036 2.501411 2.731789 3.014788 3.359940 3.828738
2025-09-07 2.069549 2.255571 2.472382 2.750230 3.107714 3.570449 4.252803
2025-09-14 1.955143 2.144137 2.367746 2.659792 3.045144 3.561178 4.361192
2025-09-21 1.895581 2.092578 2.329440 2.645294 3.074050 3.671379 4.656249
2025-09-28 1.830265 2.029176 2.270885 2.597711 3.050050 3.698099 4.816717
2025-10-05 1.816323 2.027304 2.287994 2.648439 3.163494 3.937461 5.389388
2025-10-12 1.814726 2.039644 2.322441 2.722882 3.315609 4.256932 6.219380
2025-10-19 1.780188 2.007838 2.296615 2.710592 3.334914 4.357168 6.627397
2025-10-26 1.755149 1.986777 2.283316 2.713974 3.376605 4.498871 7.184387
2025-11-02 1.710522 1.938527 2.231302 2.658303 3.319686 4.452729 7.236922
2025-11-09 1.680945 1.908840 2.202980 2.635137 3.312319 4.496188 7.550562
2025-11-16 1.653689 1.882306 2.179166 2.619128 3.318187 4.570986 8.012949
2025-11-23 1.629319 1.858587 2.157955 2.605245 3.325332 4.647097 8.520689
2025-11-30 1.617815 1.851180 2.158346 2.622708 3.384840 4.835413 9.561916
2025-12-07 1.573805 1.799320 2.095513 2.541861 3.270579 4.643722 8.983874
2025-12-14 1.554985 1.780640 2.078245 2.529468 3.273637 4.703260 9.498916
2025-12-21 1.527088 1.749148 2.042210 2.486986 3.221742 4.637817 9.436791
2025-12-28 1.530207 1.759136 2.064151 2.533692 3.328172 4.933623 11.344395
2026-01-04 1.540034 1.778170 2.099104 2.601785 3.478239 5.363390 15.195190
2026-01-11 1.525228 1.763198 2.084929 2.591316 3.481832 5.433053 16.627765
2026-01-18 1.515494 1.754865 2.079916 2.595004 3.511806 5.574792 19.403033
2026-01-25 1.490018 1.724460 2.042378 2.545086 3.436441 5.425170 18.073809